European Gas Futures Gain Amid Deeper Norwegian Supply Cuts

European natural gas prices rose as much as 7.9% after Norway extended capacity reductions at several facilities that help bring the fuel to Europe.

Shipments from the country declined further on Tuesday, with progressively reduced supplies to both the UK’s Easington and Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminals.

The curbs were caused by an incident at the Sleipner field, where the impact is expected to last until Thursday, according to data from network operator Gassco. The outage has also affected the Kollsnes and Nyhamna processing plants in Norway, which have been hit by heavier reductions than what was announced on Monday.

Lower Norwegian flows coincide with a halt of Russia’s key Nord Stream pipeline for planned maintenance, squeezing supply at a time when nations rush to fill storage sites for the winter and a heatwave boosts demand for electricity to cool homes. The UK, where temperatures are well above seasonal norms, has seen higher generation than normal from gas-fired power plants for this time of the year in recent days. The capacity at Interconnector, a pipeline connecting Britain with Belgium, is curbed due to “high ambient temperature,” the operator said.

Norway oil and gas workers end strike as government steps in

The Norwegian government on Tuesday intervened to end a strike in the petroleum sector that had cut oil and gas output, a union leader and the labour ministry said, ending a stalemate that could have worsened Europe’s energy supply crunch.

Norwegian offshore oil and gas workers went on strike over pay on Tuesday, the first day of planned industrial action that had threatened to cut the country’s gas exports by almost 60% and exacerbate supply shortages linked to the Ukraine war.

“Workers are going back to work as soon as possible. We are cancelling the planned escalation,” Lederne union leader Audun Ingvartsen told Reuters. Asked whether the strike was over, he said: “Yes”.

The labour ministry separately confirmed it had exercised its right to intervene.

“Norway plays a vital role in supplying gas to Europe, and the planned escalation (of the strike) would have had serious consequences, for Britain, Germany and other nations,” Labour Minister Marte Mjoes Persen told Reuters.

“The volume impact would have been dramatic in light of the current European situation.”

By Saturday, the strike would have cut daily gas exports by 1,117,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), or 56% of daily gas exports, while 341,000 of barrels of oil would have been lost, the Norwegian Oil and Gas (NOG) employers’ lobby said.

In a worst case scenario, Belgium and Britain would not have received any piped Norwegian gas from Saturday, gas pipeline operator Gassco had said, because of the risk of a shutdown at Sleipner, a gas transportation hub in the North Sea.

Oil and gas from Norway, Europe’s second-largest energy supplier after Russia, is in high demand as the country is seen as a reliable and predictable supplier, especially with Russia’s Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline due to shut for maintenance from July 11 for 10 days.

British wholesale gas price for day-ahead delivery had leapt nearly 16% on Tuesday, though the price of Brent crude fell as fears of a global recession outweighed concerns about supply disruption, including the strike in Norway.


The Norwegian government has the power to intervene in strikes under certain circumstances.

Such powers have also previously been used to end petroleum sector strikes, to protect Norway’s reputation as a reliable gas supplier to Europe.

“We are glad to see that the government understood the seriousness of the situation and acted to uphold Norway’s reputation as a reliable and stable supplier of natural gas to Europe,” NOG, the oil lobby, said in a statement.

Like workers elsewhere, Lederne union members had been concerned about accelerating inflation eroding their wages, though they are among the best paid employers working offshore Norway.

Last week, they had turned down a pay rise of between 4% and 4.5%, negotiated by union leaders and oil companies. Inflation in May stood at 5.7% year-on-year.

Under the forced settlement by the government, workers will receive the same terms as the two other oil unions that had neogiated deals with employers, though the specifics will be agreed at a later stage, said Ingvarsten, the union leader.


Energy crisis: Factory production could come to halt as gas prices soar

Factories across the country could stop production due to rising energy costs, industry leaders have warned.

Representatives of energy intensive industries met with Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday to discuss the ongoing crisis.

It came amid reports that energy bills could go up even further for UK customers, with an additional charge being introduced.

The new strategy could commit the Government to cutting the price of electricity and imposing a levy on gas bills to fund low-carbon heating, according to The Times.

A series of consultations are expected to be released before going ahead with the plan, which is likely to start in 2023 and could add £170 a year to gas bills, the paper said.

During talks, leaders warned the Government of “production curtailments” that could be on the way as the winter crisis looms.

Dr Richard Leese, chair of the Energy Intensive Users Group (EIUG), said: “Our message to the Secretary of State was for prompt and preventative measures to help avoid recent production curtailments in the fertiliser and steel sectors being replicated in other areas this winter.

“EIUG will work with Government to avoid threats both to the production of essential domestic and industrial products, as well an enormous range of supply chains critical to our economy and levelling up the country.”

The EIUG’s membership comprises trade associations and customer groups representing industrial sectors with the heaviest energy consumption in the UK. They include UK Steel, the Chemical Industries Association, the Confederation of Paper Industries, the Mineral Products Association, the British Glass Manufacturers Federation, the British Ceramic Confederation, BOC, Air Products and the Major Energy Users Council.

However, the Government has said it remains “confident” in the security of gas supply in coming months.

In a statement, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said about the meeting: “The Business Secretary stressed that the Government remained confident in the security of gas supply this winter.

“He also highlighted the £2 billion package of support that has been made available to industry since 2013 to help reduce electricity costs.

“The Business Secretary noted he was determined to secure a competitive future for our energy-intensive industries and promised to continue to work closely with companies over the coming days to further understand and help mitigate the impacts of any cost increases faced by businesses.”

Shadow Business Secretary Ed Miliband argued that “this is a crisis made in Downing Street”.

He said: “Kwasi Kwarteng is scrambling to meet industry bosses but he is all talk. This chaotic Tory government got us into this mess in the first place and has no plan to address it.”

It comes as there have already been warnings that bills could rise by 30 per cent in 2022.

Research agency Cornwall Insight predicted that the potential collapse of even more suppliers could push the energy price cap to about £1,660 in summer – approximately a third higher than the record £1,277 price cap set for winter 2021-22, which commenced at the start of October.

Energy regulator Ofgem reviews the price cap once every six months, with it changing based on the cost that suppliers have to pay for their energy, cost of policies and operating costs, among other things.

Mr Kwarteng said consumers will be better insulated from erratic gas prices as wind and solar power start providing more energy to the UK’s households.


Water companies to pay for low customer satisfaction rankings

Thames Water and Southern Water has ranked at the bottom of the customer satisfaction and experience annual Ofwat rankings and as a result, will have to make underperformance payments.

That follows the water services regulation authority’s publication of the results of customer satisfaction and experience for water and wastewater companies in England and Wales over the last year.

According to these rankings, Thames Water has to return £16.6 million and Southern Water £4.9 million to its customers for poor customer satisfaction.

Surveys found Portsmouth Water, Wessex Water, Northumbrian Water and Dŵr Cymru as top performers when it comes to customer satisfaction.

The mechanism named C-MeX measures the quality of services delivered to household customers and is designed to incentivise the 17 largest water companies to provide excellent levels of service to their customers.

David Black, Ofwat Interim Chief Executive, said: “We recognise companies have had to overcome challenges over the last year and we are pleased to see some improvements in customer service levels.

“Customers expect their water provider to deliver good customer service and those who fail to meet those expectations need to raise their performance.

“We want companies to continually strive to improve the quality of their customer experience – those companies who are leading the sector have been rightly rewarded.”


Energy suppliers demand government suspends £150 green taxes over the winter to slash soaring fuel bills amid huge rises in wholesale gas prices

Britain’s energy suppliers are urging the Government to suspend green taxes on energy bills over the winter to ease the financial pressure on households.

The taxes, most of which are added to electricity bills – increase bills by an average of £150 a year.

Intended to help fund the shift to lower-carbon heating in homes, they are now coinciding with huge rises in wholesale gas prices which could force up bills by as much as £800 a year.

Energy supplier Eon and renewable firms Octopus, Bulb and Ovo said a short-term solution to rocketing bills would be to suspend green taxes this winter.

The call came as Ministers pressed ahead with plans to shift some of the burden of the green taxes from electricity to gas bills.

The plans would cut the price of electricity over the next decade, while increasing gas bills by about £170 a year. Ministers want to move away from gas boilers and towards heat pumps, which suck in heat from the ground, water and air.


The shift would hit lower-income families the hardest because gas heating comprises a more significant proportion of their outgoings, although if enacted it will not feed through to domestic bills until 2023 at the earliest.

Cabinet tensions are starting to rise over the issue of green levies ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow next month, with No 10 noting that Chancellor Rishi Sunak failed to mention the Government’s target of decarbonising the economy by 2050 in last week’s party conference speech.

The Chancellor was horrified by calculations from the independent Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) putting the cost of making buildings net zero at £400 billion.

The OBR also war

Emma Young, of Bulb Energy, said: ‘The focus right now must be to protect consumers from high wholesale gas prices over the winter.

‘We could accelerate the transition from gas boilers to heat pumps by shifting environmental and policy costs from electricity bills to general taxation. That would help keep costs down on electricity bills and ensure the green transition is fair and affordable.’

Eon’s UK chief executive Michael Lewis called the Government’s plan to shift electricity taxes to gas bills ‘too simplistic and potentially regressive’. He said: ‘What about the immediate impact on those least able to switch away from gas in their homes, and least able to afford a sudden and significant increase in their heating bills?

‘The quickest and most significant thing we can do to help reduce fuel bills over winter is remove these costs from electricity bills and instead fund them through government expenditure.’

Octopus Energy, which supplies 3.1 million UK households after taking on 580,000 customers from bust supplier Avro Energy, has supported the plan in principle.

ned that the Government would need to impose carbon taxes to make up for the loss of fuel duty and other taxes.


Struggling energy firm ‘moved customers to other suppliers without their consent’

Energy firm Omni Energy reportedly switched thousands of customers to suppliers, including Bulb and ScottishPower

Leeds-based energy firm Omni Energy has told customers it is “highly likely” it will exit the UK’s energy market before the end of November.

The small energy supplier has reportedly sent an email to nearly 10,000 customers saying: “The UK industry is in crisis. The cost of wholesale energy is continuing to rise and without a significant change in the wholesale cost of energy, or a government intervention, it is highly likely Omni Energy will cease trading before the end of November.

“Why are we telling you this now? Despite reports in the media that only ‘badly run’ energy companies are ceasing to trade, we consider ourselves a well-run energy supplier. (…) At the moment, with wholesale energy costs at record highs, the cost of purchasing the energy we supply to your home is simply more than we can charge you which will quickly become unsustainable for our business.”

The company added: “To support you and make sure we minimise the impact to you we recommend that you switch to another supplier as soon as possible.”

Several customers of the company took to Twitter to raise concerns about the move.

ELN has contacted Omni Energy for a response.

In recent weeks, nine energy companies collapsed following gas price hikes.


Rescuing abandoned customers ‘costs leading energy firms £700’

Taking on customers whose energy company has collapsed will cost surviving gas and electricity firms approximately £700 more per new client.

Market giants such as British Gas, Octopus, and Shell have gained hundreds of thousands of retail customers from Ofgem’s supplier of last resort process – but it comes at a cost.

The price of ‘onboarding’ new consumers from defunct suppliers – known as ‘orphans’ – is estimated to be £700 more than the regulator’s £1,277 price cap based on average usage.

With Ofgem only reviewing its price cap on a twice per year basis, energy companies are set to bear the brunt of record wholesale prices and the limits on what customers can be charged this winter.

This follows the collapse of suppliers in the energy sector earlier this year, which has affected 1.5 million customers. In 2018, prior to the decline in energy suppliers, there were over 70 competitors in the market vying for consumers, after competitive reforms to the market that successfully reduced the influence of the former ‘Big Six’.

Simone Rossi, chief executive of EDF Energy, told the Financial Times that his company is currently is losing money with the acquisition of each new consumer.

He said: “Right now we actually suffering a loss… It’s a huge, huge issue for us across the industry.”

It is possible the biggest players in the sector could return to a dominant position in the market following the instability at smaller energy firms, provided they can ride the wave of on-boarding costs.

However, Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, told CityAM that it will be difficult for energy suppliers to see the opportunity provided by new customers due to the current situation regarding costs.

He said: “It’s clearly hard for energy suppliers to view new customers positively when they are potentially going to cost them so much money as a result of the price cap. Longer term they may be able to turn a profit, but margins are actually pretty thin in energy supply, so it takes a long time to repair an onboarding loss.”

Commenting on possible resolutions, he added: “The price cap is clearly there to protect customers, but there’s only so long the energy suppliers can soak up costs before they have to pass them on, and any review of the price cap will take into account the increased cost of wholesale prices. The best case scenario is that energy prices fall back and make things more affordable, otherwise households are inevitably going to end up paying more.”


National Grid could lose electricity system operator role under new BEIS and Ofgem plans

The UK Government and energy regulator Ofgem have outlined their initial views on replacing National Grid with a new independent system operator for electricity and gas, as part of a string of policy updates designed to accelerate the low-carbon transition.

Ofgem and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) have today (20 July) launched a consultation on the management of energy systems operations in England, Scotland and Wales (Northern Ireland has devolved responsibilities here). They are proposing that the National Grid, which has balanced supply and demand to ensure electricity access for more than 30 years, is replaced with an independent “future system operator” (FSO).

This move, the organisations claim, could help accelerate the transition of the UK’s energy systems to net-zero at the lowest possible cost to domestic and commercial energy users. Ofgem stated earlier this year that National Grid would face a “conflict of interest” in advising on the future of the energy system because it is a FTSE100 firm that also owns and operates networks.

The consultation document proposes that the FSO should take on strategic network planning, long-term forecasting and market strategy functions for gas. It also outlines “new or enhanced roles and functions” including overseeing the UK’s hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) sectors, which are set to grow rapidly in the coming decades.

Five high-level characteristics for the FSO are then detailed: “It will need to be technically expert; operationally excellent; accountable to consumers and able to support the delivery of net zero on behalf of the public; independently minded; and operationally and financially resilient.”

National Grid has stated that it “welcomes” the consultation and will “work closely” with BEIS and Ofgem throughout. As the consultation concludes in late September, a phased introduction of the FSO is expected.

Separately, BEIS and Ofgem are consulting on proposals to reform the codes that govern electricity and gas markets, with an ambition to ensure that clean solutions are more affordable and high-carbon options increase in price.

Flurry of announcements

These consultations have been posted alongside a string of other updates from BEIS today.

As well as calls for evidence on large-scale and long-duration electricity storage and vehicle-to-grid (V2G)  technologies, a new Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan has been published.

The Plan stipulates that embedding a “flexibility first” approach could reduce the annual costs of managing the UK’s energy networks by £10bn by 2050 and increase annual profits by £2.7bn, creating up to 24,000 jobs in fields such as engineering, system installation and data science. Exports alone could create 14,000 jobs. These calculations are based on a situation in which the UK hosts around 30GW of low-carbon flexible energy capacity by 2030, doubling to 60GW by 2050. This is up from 10W at present.

For these benefits to be realised, the document states, technologies like electric cars, heat pumps, energy storage systems and renewable generation arrays “will need to be seamlessly integrated onto our energy system so that low carbon power is available in the right places and at the right times to meet our energy needs”.

Proposals covered in the Plan are divided into four key themes: supporting customers to provide flexibility; removing barriers to electricity storage and interconnection; reforming markets to reward flexibility (i.e. through the Capacity Market and Contracts for Difference auction scheme) and digitising the system. These proposals build on the Energy White Paper, published late last year. There are also recommendations on improving governance.

On digitisation, the UK’s first Energy Digitisation Strategy has also been published this week following collaboration between BEIS and Innovate UK.

Commenting on the Plan and Strategy, Ofgem’s chief executive Jonathan Brearley said: A smart and flexible energy system is essential to hitting the UK’s net-zero climate goal while keeping energy bills affordable for everyone. This plan is an important step in transforming not just how we generate energy but also how we all use and pay for it.

“As we change the way we fuel our cars and heat our homes, demand for electricity will increase from millions of new electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps. Being more flexible in when we use electricity will help avoid the need to build new generating and grid capacity to meet this demand, resulting in significant savings on energy bills.”

The Plan and Strategy have attracted many reactions across the UK’s green economy. The Energy Networks Association’s chief executive David Smith called the plans “a huge sign of progress towards the intelligent and adaptive energy system which the networks have already begun building”.

Smith said: “Transforming traditional energy networks with digital innovations is a foundational part of putting customers at the heart of the net-zero journey. It makes networks smarter, more flexible and more able to manage increases in local renewable generation, green gas, heat pumps and EVs.”

Regen’s policy manager and policy lead for the electricity storage network, Madeline Greenhalgh, said: “The Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan is one area of government strategy that is actually providing clear and concrete actions that will enable a smart, flexible, decarbonised electricity system. The progress made since the last iteration is clear, with big steps forward in long-duration storage and modelling the future system.

“The storage industry will be able to use these projections to invest and grow the industry, particularly in the long-duration space, where many innovative companies are coming forward with new ideas and business models. The Electricity Storage Network will continue to drive forward work to improve the supply chain for raw materials, and a robust health and safety regime.”

Ashurst’s energy partner Antony Skinner said: “The fact that the Government is focusing on the barriers to the development of battery storage projects and has published a call for evidence on the deployment of large-scale and long-duration storage is a very positive development.

“Battery storage is a key component of an energy mix that will have a high proportion of intermittent renewable energy and while some steps have already been taking to facilitate battery storage, more needs to be done to ensure that such projects have access to a reliable revenue stream, so the Government’s recognition of this fact is very welcome.”

Skinner’s colleague Adam Eskdale added: “The overriding principle of both the Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan and the Energy Digitalisation Strategy is that energy system data must be open and visible, shared and interoperable, in order to build in grid flexibility and unlock the new digital solutions we need to reach net-zero.

“This is the central tenet of the Energy Data Taskforce’s work in 2019 and it is encouraging to see the Government continue to build on it.

“This is good news for new and potential market participants relying on data-driven business models, products and services. However, larger incumbents will be keeping an eye on how this principle continues to be built into Ofgem’s pricing controls and further code changes. Equally, there is a question about the extent to which they will be expected to contribute their data to national registries, catalogues and systems maps, and how much impact the concept of ‘presumed open’ data, will have on their valuable information.”


BEIS and Ofgem look to overhaul the ‘complex and fragmented’ energy code system

A consultation has been launched on overhauling the energy code governance framework to help drive the transition to a clean energy system.

Published today by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Ofgem, the consultation states that while the codes have thus far done a “remarkable job guiding the industry post-privatisation” they were not designed to deal with the increasingly decentralised and distributed energy system in Britain.

As such, the framework has become complex, fragmented and lacks incentives to innovate, and there is an urgent need to update it. This was identified in the energy white paper last year, when the government committed to consulting on options for reformation, building on a previous consultation in 2019.

The four areas in need of reform are; providing strategic direction, empowered and accountable code management, independent decision-making and code simplification and consolidation. The overarching nature of these areas will mean they cover all 12 of the current electricity and gas codes as well as relevant engineering standards.

Additionally, BEIS and Ofgem are proposing to bring central system delivery bodies into the scope, meaning it would also include the electricity systems operated by Elexon, the smart systems operated by the Data Communications Company (DCC) and the Data Transfer Service (DTS) operated by Electralink.

Building on the 2019 consultation, two potential models for delivering the desired agile code system have been laid out by BEIS and Ofgem. The first would see the regulator as a strategic body working with a separate code manager.

This would involve Ofgem developing and annually publishing directions for codes and ensuring their delivery by managers, approving material code changes and leading code changes themselves. Within this model the code managers would be selected through a tender process, replacing the existing code administrations after a suitable transition period. They would then be responsible for developing an annual delivery plan based on the strategic direction they receive from Ofgem.

Within the second proposed model, an Integrated Rule Making Body within the Future System Operator would be established. This would see the strategic function and code manager function combined, with one body holding most of the responsibilities detailed in the first model, although Ofgem would retain some oversight and decision making roles to protect against potential conflicts of interest.

BEIS and Ofgem launched a consultation on the creation of a Future System Operator today as part of an influx of calls for evidence, and would see an entirely independent operator take on much of National Grid ESO’s role in an effort to avoid any potential conflict of interest given its links to National Grid as the system continues to transition to net zero.

This builds on a report from Ofgem in January into system operator governance arrangements, which itself led Elexon to throw its weight behind a reorganisation of both the system operator roles and code arrangements to develop a ‘holistic’ system that can support net zero.

The consultation into code reform will act as an initial high-level insight into stake-holder views, allowing Ofgem to then work in consultation to develop elements of the reforms that do not require primary legislation. To ensure this is delivered as quickly as possible, the regulator will then look to review the options for code consolidation before the new governance structure is implemented.

This would see delivery of code consolidation begin in 2024 if model one is chosen, and in 2026 if model two is. The consolidation into the Design and Delivery of the Energy Code Reform opens today, and will run until 28 September 2021.


For more information and to respond to the consultation, see here.


National Grid ESO has warned of tight margins come winter due to supply uncertainty

ollowing the tight margins seen on the electricity system last winter, National Grid ESO has released an early view of its winter outlook.

It is expecting there to be similar or even slightly lower system margins over winter, and is predicting a base case de-rated margin of 4.3GW or 7.3%. While this is slightly lower than last year, it still falls within the reliability standard of three hours, with a loss of load expectation (LOLE) of around 0.1 hours/year.

There is some uncertainty, however, around this de-rated margin due to the availability of supply. Across the operators three cases – low, base and high – the margin varies between 3.1-5.4GW or 5.3-9%.

With nuclear and coal plants closing, supply over the last winter became more complicated. Both Dungeness B and Hunterston B nuclear power stations are now expected to be offline come winter 2021/22, and only coal units with capacity market agreements are expected to be available over the winter.

Additionally, Baglan Bay, Severn Power and Sutton Bridge combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power stations are all expected to be offline in the winter.

There is expected to be more interconnector capacity than last winter, however, with IFA2 to France available and NSL to Norway expected to be online from October. Renewables, storage and distributed generation is all expected to be in line with expectations set out in the Future Energy Scenarios.

A number of factors could impact the availability of supply. For example, within the low case, there is a margin of just 3.1GW, which could be caused by just two power stations going down, or a combination of higher demand and one outage. This would bring the margin to 5.3%, its tightest since 2015-16.

Average cold spell (ACS) peak demand is expected to be 59.5GW, and experience no suppression due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Last year, lockdowns across Britain led to demand being reduced by 3-4%.

Despite this reduction, cold weather and low winds pushed the electricity system on a number of occasions. As such, National Grid had to put out six Electricity Market Notices (EMN) in an effort to manage the volatility.

This volatility drove up prices with the day ahead prices jumping to almost £1,500/MWh, while Balancing Market hit a record breaking £4,000/MWh on Friday 8 January. EDF’s West Burton B CCGT plant, for example, achieved the highest daily revenue from the Balancing Mechanism, receiving over £7.5 million in a single day.

Despite the challenges seen last year, and the uncertainty around supply going into winter 2021/22, National Grid ESO said it had the tools available to manage the grid.

“We may see some tight margins again this winter, but we’re confident there’ll be enough electricity to keep Britain’s lights on,” it said in a statement.

Following this early look, the full Winter Outlook is due to be published in October 2021.